Pursuing the demographic dividend in Central Asia: female labour force participation and potential economic growth

Abstract

This article examines how demographic change and female labour force participation could affect economic output in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan by 2050. Using World Bank demographic and labour data, the study constructs three labour force scenarios and translates their implications into output effects through a Cobb–Douglas production function. The results indicate that demographic expansion is the largest source of projected labour force growth in every country, while higher female participation adds approximately 3,173 participants in Kyrgyzstan and 1.66 million in Uzbekistan. Under the combined scenario, the largest proportional output gain is in Tajikistan (46.16%), while Uzbekistan has the largest absolute gain ($55.335 billion in constant 2015 dollars). These conditional estimates assume productive employment and constant capital and technology; they are not forecasts of actual GDP or causal estimates of reform effects.

Keywords: demographic dividend, Central Asia, female labour force participation, population projections, labour markets, economic growth, Cobb–Douglas model

Әдебиеттер тізімі

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Дәйексөз келтіру үлгісі

Alnur Tursunkhanov Pursuing the demographic dividend in Central Asia: female labour force participation and potential economic growth // Central Asian Scientific Journal. – 2026. – No. 4(32), Vol. 2. – Pp. 140–151.

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