How fast is kazakhstan leaving coal? the coal share of electricity in Kazakhstan compared with China, Russia, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, 2000-2025

Abstract

Coal still produces most of Kazakhstan's electricity. This study asks how fast the coal share of electricity has been falling in Kazakhstan compared with Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and China, and from what moment Kazakhstan began to lag behind. Yearly data for 2000-2025 from the Ember electricity dataset were used, and the Kazakh figures were compared with the national statistics committee, the system operator KEGOC and the Ministry of Energy. Only China had a coal share as high as Kazakhstan's and reduced it steadily; in Russia, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan coal was a small and not declining share. Over 2011-2025 as a whole, Kazakhstan's coal share fell about as fast as China's in the Ember data (1.6 and 1.5 percentage points per year), and slightly slower (1.3-1.4) with data only to 2022 or with the Ministry of Energy's figure for 2025. The main visible difference is in the middle of the period: from 2015 to 2019 Kazakhstan's coal share did not fall (70.6% in 2015, 70.4% in 2019), while China's fell by 1.2 points per year, and from 2017 to 2022 Kazakhstan's share was above China's. With five years of data this pause is descriptive, not statistically certain, and the year in which the lag "began" depends on how lag is defined. The clearer gap is in clean electricity: the non-fossil share of Kazakhstan's electricity fell to 8-10% in 2008-2014 and returned to 14.9% in 2025, about where it was in 2000, while China's rose from 17.9% to 41.6%. How far coal has fallen since 2022 depends on the source: Ember gives 54.3% for 2025, a 2026 Ministry of Energy statement gives 62.1%.

Keywords: coal, electricity generation, energy transition, Kazakhstan, China, Central Asia, Ember, renewable energy

Список литературы

1. Ember. Yearly electricity data: full release, long format. URL: https://ember-energy.org/data/yearly-electricity-data/ (accessed: 27.10.2026).
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Как цитировать

Onal Yerkanat Bilim-Innovation Lyceum No. 1, Karagandy, Kazakhstan How fast is kazakhstan leaving coal? the coal share of electricity in Kazakhstan compared with China, Russia, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, 2000-2025 // Central Asian Scientific Journal. – 2026. – No. 4(32), Vol. 2. – Pp. 87–93. – DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.23772180.