DID A TENGE DEPOSIT OR THREE KAZAKHSTANI SHARES PROTECT SAVINGS FROM INFLATION? REAL RETURNS OF BANK DEPOSITS, KAZATOMPROM, KEGOC AND KASPI.KZ, 2020-2025

Abstract

Between the end of 2019 and the end of 2025, consumer prices in Kazakhstan rose by 88%. This study asks what happened over that period to the savings of a person who kept money in a tenge bank deposit, and compares the deposit with three well-known Kazakhstani shares: Kazatomprom, KEGOC and Kaspi.kz. The deposit is modelled with the average rate that banks paid on new tenge deposits of individuals for 3 to 12 months, as published by the National Bank of Kazakhstan, and the shares with their prices in tenge plus all dividends paid, taken from the companies' own documents. Before seeing the results, I wrote down that I thought the deposit had not fully covered inflation, that Kazatomprom had earned the most and that shares were riskier than the deposit. The deposit grew by 104%, a gain of 9% after inflation, or 2% if the money was placed for 12 months at a time, and in 2022 it lost 7-10% after inflation. Kazatomprom, with dividends, ended with about four times the purchasing power invested at the end of 2019, but its value fell by 36% between October 2021 and May 2022. KEGOC paid dividends of about 9% of its price per year, yet its price was lower at the end of 2025 than at the end of 2019, and after inflation it lost 15%, while the deposit gained. Kaspi.kz could be followed only from its Nasdaq listing in January 2024, and up to the end of 2025 it lost 14% after inflation. With only three companies, the results show how widely single shares can differ from each other and from a deposit, not a general rule for savers.

Keywords: inflation, bank deposits, real returns, dividends, Kazakhstan, Kazatomprom, KEGOC, Kaspi.kz

Список литературы

1. Zhenisbekova A. Financial inclusion and emergency resilience in Kazakhstan: a secondary analysis of the Global Findex 2025 database // Central Asian Scientific Journal. 2026. No. 3(31). P. 168–178.
2. Al-Nassar N.S., Bhatti R.H. Are common stocks a hedge against inflation in emerging markets? // Journal of Economics and Finance. 2019. Vol. 43, No. 3. P. 421–455. DOI: 10.1007/s12197-018-9447-9.
3. Gnahe F.E. Do macroeconomic variables impact stock market returns? Evidence from Kazakhstan // Global Journal of Business, Economics and Management: Current Issues. 2021. Vol. 11, No. 3. P. 254–273. DOI: 10.18844/gjbem.v11i3.5620.
4. International Monetary Fund. Consumer Price Index (CPI), Kazakhstan, all items, monthly index [dataset]. URL: https://api.imf.org/external/sdmx/2.1/data/IMF.STA,CPI/KAZ.CPI._T.IX.M (accessed 10.10.2026).
5. National Bank of Kazakhstan. Interest rates of banks on attracted deposits by terms and types of currencies [statistical series, in Russian]. URL: https://nationalbank.kz/ru/interestratesofbanksonat/stavki-voznagrazhdeniya-bankov-po-privlechennym-depozitampo-srokam-i-vidam-valyut (accessed 10.10.2026).
6. Yahoo Finance. Historical daily prices of NAC Kazatomprom GDR (KAP.IL, London Stock Exchange), Kaspi.kz ADS (KSPI, Nasdaq) and the USD/KZT exchange rate (KZT=X). URL: https://finance.yahoo.com (accessed 09.10.2026).
7. NAC Kazatomprom JSC. Dividends [web page]. URL: https://www.kazatomprom.kz/en/investors/devidenti (accessed 14.10.2026).
8. KEGOC JSC. Annual reports for 2019–2025 [web page, in Russian]. URL: https://www.kegoc.kz/ru/for-investors-and-shareholders/raskrytie-informatsii/annual-reports/ (accessed 14.10.2026).
9. Kaspi.kz JSC. 1Q 2023 financial results [press release]. URL: https://ir.kaspi.kz/media/1Q_2023_Results.pdf (accessed 15.10.2026).
10. Kaspi.kz JSC. 1Q 2024 financial results [press release]. URL: https://ir.kaspi.kz/media/1Q_2024_Results.pdf (accessed 15.10.2026).
11. Kaspi.kz JSC. Consolidated financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025, note 23 [report]. URL: https://ir.kaspi.kz/media/FY_2025_Financial_Statements.pdf (accessed 14.10.2026).

Как цитировать

Zhenisbekova Aknur DID A TENGE DEPOSIT OR THREE KAZAKHSTANI SHARES PROTECT SAVINGS FROM INFLATION? REAL RETURNS OF BANK DEPOSITS, KAZATOMPROM, KEGOC AND KASPI.KZ, 2020-2025 // Central Asian Scientific Journal. – 2026. – No. 4(32), Vol. 1. – Pp. 205–212.