GROWTH OF GITHUB DEVELOPER COMMUNITIES IN KAZAKHSTAN, UZBEKISTAN AND KYRGYZSTAN, 2020-2026: EVIDENCE FROM THE GITHUB INNOVATION GRAPH

Abstract

This study asks how the number of software developers on GitHub changed in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan from 2020 to 2026, which country grew faster, and whether programming languages such as Python grew at the same pace as the developer base. Kyrgyzstan is added as a third Central Asian country. The data are the open GitHub Innovation Graph, which reports quarterly counts of developer accounts, repositories, git pushes and language users for each economy, for 25 quarters from 2020 Q1 to 2026 Q1, combined with World Bank population figures. Developer accounts in Kazakhstan rose from 69,649 to 463,403 (6.7 times), in Uzbekistan from 24,575 to 395,040 (16.1 times, the fastest growth among the 121 economies that had at least 10,000 accounts in 2020 Q1) and in Kyrgyzstan from 14,440 to 121,507 (8.4 times). Per million residents Kazakhstan still leads, with 22,232 accounts against 10,661 in Uzbekistan, but its lead fell from 4.9 times to 2.1 times. Yearly git pushes grew in step with accounts in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan but not in Kyrgyzstan. In Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan the number of developers pushing to Python repositories grew faster than both the developer base and the number of pushes. Kazakhstan's code activity drops in every third quarter: in 2020-2025 git pushes were on average 19.6% below the level of the neighbouring quarters (about 15% below trend) and Python users 28.5% below, while Uzbekistan shows a much smaller drop (3.5% in git pushes, not significant, and 8.7% in Python users). An exploratory comparison of 146 economies shows that this summer drop is common in the Northern Hemisphere and weaker or reversed in the Southern Hemisphere, and the north-south contrast is sharper outside the tropics, so it is consistent with the northern summer holiday season rather than a problem specific to Kazakhstan's IT sector.

Keywords: GitHub, software developers, open data, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Python, seasonality, digital economy

References

1. GitHub. GitHub Innovation Graph [Electronic resource]: dataset, version 1.0.11. – 2026. – URL: https://github.com/github/innovationgraph (accessed: 11.10.2026).
2. GitHub. GitHub Innovation Graph Metrics: datasheet [Electronic resource]. – 2026. – URL: https://github.com/github/innovationgraph/blob/main/docs/datasheet.md (accessed: 11.10.2026).
3. Wachs J., Nitecki M., Schueller W., Polleres A. The geography of open source software: evidence from GitHub // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. – 2022. – Vol. 176. – Art. 121478. – DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121478.
4. Juhász S., Wachs J., Kaminski J., Hidalgo C.A. The software complexity of nations // Research Policy. – 2026. – Vol. 55, No. 3. – Art. 105422. – DOI: 10.1016/j.respol.2026.105422. Supplementary information in the arXiv version: arXiv:2407.13880v2. – URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.13880 (accessed: 11.10.2026).
5. Quispe A., Grijalba R. Impact of the availability of ChatGPT on software development: a synthetic difference in differences estimation using GitHub data [Electronic resource] // arXiv. – 2024. – arXiv:2406.11046. – URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.11046 (accessed: 11.10.2026).
6. Wachs J. Digital traces of brain drain: developers during the Russian invasion of Ukraine // EPJ Data Science. – 2023. – Vol. 12. – Art. 14. – DOI: 10.1140/epjds/s13688-023-00389-3.
7. Mussin A., Shorakhan B., Bakhyt A., Kassymkhan M., Karimov T. Comparison of inflation and unemployment between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan // Central Asian Scientific Journal. – 2026. – No. 2(30), Vol. 1. – P. 472–482.
8. Yanson D., Dautov D., Abdul-ghani M., Nazar S., Tsoy L., Kalambay A. The transmission mechanism of value-added tax and its impact on consumer price index: comparative analysis of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan // Central Asian Scientific Journal. – 2026. – No. 2(30), Vol. 1. – P. 512–517.
9. World Bank. Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL) [Electronic resource] // World Development Indicators. – 2026. – URL: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL (accessed: 11.10.2026).
10. National Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Service export volume of IT Park participants (indicator 1.08.02.0045) [Electronic resource]. – 2026. – URL: https://siat.stat.uz/data/3358/ (accessed: 11.10.2026).
11. Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan becomes a net technology exporter: IT service exports exceed $1.1 billion in 2025 [Electronic resource]. – 10.04.2026. – URL: https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/maidd/press/news/details/1198462?lang=en (accessed: 11.10.2026).
12. Elliott T. The State of the Octoverse: breaks and holidays [Electronic resource] // The GitHub Blog. – 2018. – URL: https://github.blog/news-insights/the-library/breaks-and-holidays/ (accessed: 11.10.2026).

How to cite

Mukhamedzhan Y. GROWTH OF GITHUB DEVELOPER COMMUNITIES IN KAZAKHSTAN, UZBEKISTAN AND KYRGYZSTAN, 2020-2026: EVIDENCE FROM THE GITHUB INNOVATION GRAPH // Central Asian Scientific Journal. – 2026. – No. 4(32), Vol. 1. – Pp. 239–250.